Significant Severe Weather Outbreak across the entire Four State Region for later this week...     

  

Timing and Overview:

 

Timing is always an issue so far out in the forecast but confidence continues to increase that by Friday through sometime early Saturday, the necessary ingredients will be coming together for severe weather.  The amount of shear in the lower and mid-levels of the atmosphere, combined with moderate instability for the middle of January suggests that significant severe weather will be possible. Moisture will be sufficient enough that rainfall accumulations Thursday through early Saturday could be significant as well with widespread 1-3 inches possible with isolated higher amounts. 

 

Four State Impacts:

 

Impacts:  The possibility for large hail, widespread damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible in the Friday through early Saturday time frame (see graphic).  The possibility will exist that the rainfall could exceed 3 inches in some locations across the Four State Region and it will be these locations that flooding may become a concern as well.