I decided to separate the Summer weather from the Hurricane Season also discussed this morning on the NWS Weather Briefing as the Hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin will start until JUNE 1st. Below are the thoughts from the Climate Prediction Center on our Hurricane Outlook for the 2019 Season.

 

 

NOAA's 2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year.

The outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season, which extends from June 1st to November 30th.

NOAA forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). 
An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

This outlook consists of competing for climate factors: 

The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. 
Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity. 

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center will update the 2019 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the hurricane season.