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Weather Update @ 9:30 a.m. Sunday

Timing and Overview:
Showers and thunderstorms will increase across East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma this morning, before spreading into North Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas this afternoon and evening. Daytime heating will contribute to a destabilizing atmosphere, ahead of a strong upper level disturbance that will move into the region later today. Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible, mainly over extreme Eastern Texas, North Louisiana and Southwest Arkansas. The primary threats though will be locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. The severe weather and flash flood threat will diminish from west to east later this evening. 


Another upper level disturbance moving across Texas/Oklahoma Monday will contribute to another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night. Some of these storms may also become severe, with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes again possible over East Texas, North Louisiana, and Southwest Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threat, with the soils expected to become primed from the heavy rains later today such that flash flooding will be a significant concern areawide late Monday afternoon through Monday night.  Given the already saturated grounds, it will not take much wind to down/uproot trees from strong thunderstorms. The fact that organized strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and night will only enhance the potential for downed trees. 


Rainfall:  Rainfall amounts of one to three inches are expected today and tonight from this first weather system...with additional amounts of two to in excess of four inches likely with the second disturbance Monday and Monday night. Thus, two day storm totals of three to six inches, with locally higher amounts, are likely areawide through Tuesday morning.  
As you can see, we are in the bulls eye this time...be prepared...listen to your favorite weather source...aND...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!!

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