The dew point temperatures (the temperature to which the air needs to be cooled in order for the relative humidity to reach 100%) are already near 70°F along the Texas coast--not too far from typical summertime values. This rich moisture will surge Northward through the week, with mild, humid air possibly making it as far north as Chicago and Cleveland by Thursday.

The position of muggy low-level air and the cold upper-level storm will produce strong instability over a wide area. However, a very warm, dry layer sandwiched between the two—called an atmospheric “cap”—should keep storms from becoming widespread.  

Any storms that do manage to break through the cap could quickly become severe, especially along a dry line from Texas to Missouri late Wednesday, overnight storms could produce severe wind or hail across parts of northeast Kansas and Missouri. 

Much will depend on where storms develop on Wednesday night and how much they persist into Thursday morning. Where the air is not extensively rain-cooled, very intense storms could develop along the surging cold front and just east of the surface low, perhaps reaching eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin by evening. Upper-level winds will be even stronger than on Wednesday, and any tornadoes that form could be moving rapidly, adding to the threat. 

By Thursday night, a large complex of severe storms may bring high winds, large hail, and very heavy rain from East Texas into La, Ark, the Tennessee and Ohio valleys.  We are currently on the outer edge(Southern) of the severe activity area.  But now is the time to have our plans in place, to stay alert, and be able to respond on short notice.
                         
NWS ADVISORY:The runoffs from the rain we experienced the last few days are feeding into the Attoyac and Ayish Bayou basins and are expected to once again cause minor flooding near San Augustine and Chireno, but nothing like we had with last month's rains.  

I drove both routes late Monday and there is very nominal out of banks flooding. The crest for the flood stage should drop rapidly with the Sun & Wind by late Wednesday with no further rainfall.

Our weather outlook update:  The winds will be gusty at times as the dry lines pass through our area especially on Wednesday and Thursday.  Our rain chances and very warm April weather will persist into next week.