We are now in an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of Deep East Texas as well as portions of Southwest Arkansas and all of Northern Louisiana for Monday as shown in the graphics below.  Stay tuned to your favorite weather sources throughout the day MONDAY.  Especially during the prime daytime heat hours.

 

Timing and Overview:Showers and thunderstorms...some strong in intensity...will begin to move into the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas...Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas after midnight tonight towards sunrise Monday Morning. These thunderstorms will become more numerous throughout the day with strong to severe thunderstorms likely across the Slight and Enhanced Risk areas (see graphic). The greatest risk could come during peak afternoon heating which would only serve to further enhance the already elevated risks. 

Four State Impacts:

 

Impacts:  Wind Shear is extreme with this weather system...so if supercells can form...then isolated tornadoes would become the greatest risk. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are also possible.  Brief Heavy downpours will be possible as well with rainfall amounts generally between 1 and 3 inches before the rain ends Monday Evening (see graphic).