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Weather Update @ 9:15 a.m. Sunday; Unsettled pattern beginning today, with mix of fronts & tropical things forming

Similar to this time yesterday...another convective complex is moving eastward across southern OK/North Texas while scattered showers/thunderstorms move northward on the northwest coast of the Gulf. The OK/Texas complex should weaken later this morning before it reaches our area. However...scattered convection should redevelop along a residual outflow boundary from southeast OK southward into deep East Texas.

 

Convective coverage should be greater than Saturday as a broad upper trough moves into the plains and provides some enhanced lift. In fact...the additional vertical ascent has already resulted in scattered showers from Toledo Bend northward into SW Arkansas for much of the night.

 

Showers/thunderstorms should gradually diminish and decrease in coverage after sunset.

 

A similar scenario should unfold for Monday but daytime convective coverage should once again be greater as a deep plume of moisture streams into the area ahead of a tropical low in the Gulf of mx. 

 

Speaking of the tropical low currently known as invest al91...this is where the forecast becomes increasingly complex. Almost all of the models have now picked up on this tropical low...currently over the Yucatan Peninsula...and track it into the northwest Gulf and bring it onshore the southeast Texas coast before lifting it north and northeastward over East Texas and into southeast OK/western Arkansas through Thursday.

 

Timing differences are still quite significant. The NAM is currently the fastest model placing the low into southeast OK by Tuesday evening. The 00z Canadian is around 12z Wednesday...the 00z GFS around Thursday morning and the 00z European model (ecmwf) by early Thursday afternoon. NHC is also maintaining a 50 percent chance for tropical cyclone development with this system over the next 48 hours. 


Despite the timing differences...it is becoming increasingly likely that another heavy rain event is in store across southeast OK/SW Arkansas/East Texas during the Tuesday-Thursday time frame. 3 to 4 inches of rainfall...with locally higher amounts...will be possible during this time period. Higher rainfall totals will also be possible depending on the strength and exact track of the low. This could certainly lead to new and/or additional flooding on area rivers and lakes. Persons with interests along the rivers and lakes are urged to keep updated with the later forecasts. 

 

The low should gradually weaken after it moves onshore and be picked up by the prevailing westerlies and lift into the middle MS valley by the end of the week bringing most of our rain chances to an end. Rain chances beyond next Friday will likely be limited to isolated to scattered diurnal convection. 

 

Tom JohnsonKTXSANAU6

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